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Objective: Identifying which types of athletes have increased injury risk (ie, predictive risk factors) should help develop cost-effective selective injury prevention strategies. Our objective was to compare a theoretical injury risk classification system developed by coaches and rehabilitation therapists, with observed injury rates in human circus acts across dimensions of physical stressors, acrobatic complexity, qualifications, and residual risks. Design: Descriptive epidemiological study. Setting: professional circus company. Patients or Other Participants: Human circus artists performing in routine roles between 2007 and 2017. Assessment of Risk Factors: Characteristics of circus acts categorized according to 4 different dimensions. Main Outcome
Measures: Medical attention injury rates (injury requiring a visit to the therapist), time-loss injury rates (TL-1; injury resulting in at least one missed performance), and time-loss 15 injury rates (TL-15; injury resulting in at least 15 missed performances). Results: Among 962 artists with 1 373 572 performances, 89.4% (860/962) incurred at least one medical attention injury, 74.2% (714/962) incurred at least one TL-1 injury, and 50.8% (489/962) incurred at least one TL-15 injury. There were important inconsistencies between theoretical and observed injury risk patterns in each of the 4 dimensions for all injury definitions (medical attention, TL-1, and TL-15). Conclusions: Although theoretical classifications are the only option when no data are available, observed risk patterns based on injury surveillance programs can help identify artists who have a high (or low) theoretical risk but are nonetheless actually at low (or high) risk of injury, given their current roles. This will help develop more cost-effective selective injury prevention programs.